FH flight schedule suffers from a common problem that is related to heavy single sat payloads. And that is the complexity and size of those payloads creates a significant amount of schedule un-reliability for the sat readiness to fly. FH is ready to do multiple flights this year but will likely be a small part of the originally scheduled flights for which SpaceX has built hardware needed to support those flights.As to availability to Super Heavy lifters +50t max payload capability. There will eventually be BO's NG hopefully. This should be in use prior to the last flight of DIVH. The NG flying at the 30t Heavy amount would fulfill the second launcher capability if the DOD really needs one at the 2024 timeframe.
Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 07/08/2022 07:05 pm<snip>As to availability to Super Heavy lifters +50t max payload capability. There will eventually be BO's NG hopefully. This should be in use prior to the last flight of DIVH. The NG flying at the 30t Heavy amount would fulfill the second launcher capability if the DOD really needs one at the 2024 timeframe.<snip>NSSL usually requires at least two successful non-DoD flights before new launcher is accepted, so I do not think NG can serve as the backup in 2024. At the current rate Starship is a more likely candidate from a schedule perspective, except that we don't know how SpaceX intends to support launching a heavy payload that requires vertical integration in a traditional fairing on Starship.
<snip>As to availability to Super Heavy lifters +50t max payload capability. There will eventually be BO's NG hopefully. This should be in use prior to the last flight of DIVH. The NG flying at the 30t Heavy amount would fulfill the second launcher capability if the DOD really needs one at the 2024 timeframe.
Quote from: woods170 on 07/08/2022 09:49 amQuote from: alugobi on 07/03/2022 10:21 pmQuoteVulcanDude, where's your engines?That is getting really stale. Yes, the BE-4 is very late, but they are clearly finally on their way. As evidenced by the images released by Tory on some bird site recently.Posters will stop using that meme when a pair of flight capable engines is installed on the Vulcan.
Quote from: alugobi on 07/03/2022 10:21 pmQuoteVulcanDude, where's your engines?That is getting really stale. Yes, the BE-4 is very late, but they are clearly finally on their way. As evidenced by the images released by Tory on some bird site recently.
QuoteVulcanDude, where's your engines?
Vulcan
None of the US providers (exclusive of Taurus) in the last 40 years. ADTA doesn’t count nor does PSLV or Naro
Quote from: Zed_Noir on 07/08/2022 12:03 pmQuote from: woods170 on 07/08/2022 09:49 amQuote from: alugobi on 07/03/2022 10:21 pmQuoteVulcanDude, where's your engines?That is getting really stale. Yes, the BE-4 is very late, but they are clearly finally on their way. As evidenced by the images released by Tory on some bird site recently.Posters will stop using that meme when a pair of flight capable engines is installed on the Vulcan. Some posters might continue to use that meme until Vulcan reaches a certain launch cadence.
Astra had an issue with fairing separation less than four months after your post. Granted, that is a startup company that has seen several failed launch attempts for different reasons, including the first time a tower was cleared horizontally in a launch attempt.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 07/08/2022 08:11 pmQuote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 07/08/2022 07:05 pm<snip>As to availability to Super Heavy lifters +50t max payload capability. There will eventually be BO's NG hopefully. This should be in use prior to the last flight of DIVH. The NG flying at the 30t Heavy amount would fulfill the second launcher capability if the DOD really needs one at the 2024 timeframe.<snip>NSSL usually requires at least two successful non-DoD flights before new launcher is accepted, so I do not think NG can serve as the backup in 2024. At the current rate Starship is a more likely candidate from a schedule perspective, except that we don't know how SpaceX intends to support launching a heavy payload that requires vertical integration in a traditional fairing on Starship.My guess is that SpaceX will build a vertical integration bay with adjacent payload processing bay to load the payload onto a Starship with an overhead crane. Then the Starship gets placed on a SPMT unit with the overhead crane before rolling to the launch pad. Since the chopsticks on the Mechanizilla can lift an empty super heavy, it should have no problems lifting the Starship with a payload onto the Super Heavy.The question is whether will SpaceX uses a chomper hatch or piano bay doors with probably a slide out deployment tilt table with the NRO/DoD special delivery Starship.Very unlikely that SpaceX will employed the traditional 2 PLF halves with an expendable Starship variant. Unless the payload is extremely tall. In which case the vertical integration bay need to have a way to encapsulated the payload in the traditional manner.
Quote from: Zed_Noir on 07/08/2022 11:08 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 07/08/2022 08:11 pmQuote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 07/08/2022 07:05 pm<snip>As to availability to Super Heavy lifters +50t max payload capability. There will eventually be BO's NG hopefully. This should be in use prior to the last flight of DIVH. The NG flying at the 30t Heavy amount would fulfill the second launcher capability if the DOD really needs one at the 2024 timeframe.<snip>NSSL usually requires at least two successful non-DoD flights before new launcher is accepted, so I do not think NG can serve as the backup in 2024. At the current rate Starship is a more likely candidate from a schedule perspective, except that we don't know how SpaceX intends to support launching a heavy payload that requires vertical integration in a traditional fairing on Starship.My guess is that SpaceX will build a vertical integration bay with adjacent payload processing bay to load the payload onto a Starship with an overhead crane. Then the Starship gets placed on a SPMT unit with the overhead crane before rolling to the launch pad. Since the chopsticks on the Mechanizilla can lift an empty super heavy, it should have no problems lifting the Starship with a payload onto the Super Heavy.The question is whether will SpaceX uses a chomper hatch or piano bay doors with probably a slide out deployment tilt table with the NRO/DoD special delivery Starship.Very unlikely that SpaceX will employed the traditional 2 PLF halves with an expendable Starship variant. Unless the payload is extremely tall. In which case the vertical integration bay need to have a way to encapsulated the payload in the traditional manner.Didn’t SpaceX plan on building a Vertical Integration Facility of their own? You know, the one stationed on Pad 39A that’ll retract backward before launch?
Quote from: AmigaClone on 07/10/2022 11:27 amQuote from: Zed_Noir on 07/08/2022 12:03 pmQuote from: woods170 on 07/08/2022 09:49 amQuote from: alugobi on 07/03/2022 10:21 pmQuoteVulcanDude, where's your engines?That is getting really stale. Yes, the BE-4 is very late, but they are clearly finally on their way. As evidenced by the images released by Tory on some bird site recently.Posters will stop using that meme when a pair of flight capable engines is installed on the Vulcan. Some posters might continue to use that meme until Vulcan reaches a certain launch cadence.It has already reached a certain cadence.You realize it might never launch more times than SpaceX launches in a single year with F9?And depending on how things shape up with Starship, possibly a lot less? (Not even counting NG here)
You know, there’s another cliché out there that says something along the lines of getting sidetracked. What was that again?
Quote from: ZachS09 on 07/13/2022 11:40 pmYou know, there’s another cliché out there that says something along the lines of getting sidetracked. What was that again? "Don't get sidetracked"
It's getting a bit ridiculous...
Quote from: MATTBLAK on 07/14/2022 12:14 amIt's getting a bit ridiculous...The major issue with the lack of Falcon Heavy launches (after the first test one) seem to be related to payload issues.Part of the issue with lack of payloads is the small detail that a Falcon 9 Block 5 can send about twice the payload into LEO as the original Falcon 9 V1.0, so some of the payloads initially planned for a Falcon Heavy have ended up being launched on a single stick Falcon 9.
Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 07/08/2022 07:05 pmFH flight schedule suffers from a common problem that is related to heavy single sat payloads. And that is the complexity and size of those payloads creates a significant amount of schedule un-reliability for the sat readiness to fly. FH is ready to do multiple flights this year but will likely be a small part of the originally scheduled flights for which SpaceX has built hardware needed to support those flights.As to availability to Super Heavy lifters +50t max payload capability. There will eventually be BO's NG hopefully. This should be in use prior to the last flight of DIVH. The NG flying at the 30t Heavy amount would fulfill the second launcher capability if the DOD really needs one at the 2024 timeframe.There are a total of three remaining DIVH and they are all committed, so DIVH does not constitute a backup for FH: that is, if FH were to be grounded today, none of its payloads could fly on DIVH.NSSL usually requires at least two successful non-DoD flights before new launcher is accepted, so I do not think NG can serve as the backup in 2024. At the current rate Starship is a more likely candidate from a schedule perspective, except that we don't know how SpaceX intends to support launching a heavy payload that requires vertical integration in a traditional fairing on Starship.
So FH already has about as much of a backup as Delta IV Heavy did. More if you count there are like 3 or 4 new rockets (of at least Delta IV Heavy capability to LEO) ready to fly to orbit in the next 30 months, not just 1, and they’re being built or are built now already, not just a hypothetical configuration.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 07/15/2022 03:08 pmSo FH already has about as much of a backup as Delta IV Heavy did. More if you count there are like 3 or 4 new rockets (of at least Delta IV Heavy capability to LEO) ready to fly to orbit in the next 30 months, not just 1, and they’re being built or are built now already, not just a hypothetical configuration.I will restrain my enthusiasm until one of the alternatives actually flies. The three I know of are Starship, Vulcan, and NG. Although I assume a design can be developed, It is unclear how Starship can accommodate NSSL payloads. Vulcan and NG both depend on the same new engine, and that engine's production rate is apparently limited.Even if all three might fly in the next 30 months, or even get NSSL-qualified in that time, FH still constitutes a single point of failure without a backup for the next 30 months.